Tuesday , October 19 2021

Forex: Weekly Outlook: January 28


© Reuters.

Investing.com: This week, investors will focus on the first Federal Reserve meeting of the year, as well as an expected US quarter-on-quarter growth update and the US government's state-of-the-art report. United States seen next January.

The ongoing trade negotiations between the US and China will also be the protagonists.

The Fed will conclude its two-day policy meeting on Wednesdays and expects to keep rates steadily after raising them in December for the fourth time in 2018. It has indicated that it will increase rates twice this year, but some officials have recently adopted a pale tone.

Investors are waiting for clarity on the possible future path of monetary policy of the press conference of Fed president Jerome Powell. Last year, Powell announced that it would hold a press conference after each policy meeting, a change in the previous quarterly programming.

On Friday, the Labor Department will publish its non-agricultural payroll report for January, which will provide information on the general health of the US economy and the possible impact of the partial stop of the government. The consensus forecast is to earn a profit of 160,000 jobs after an impressive reading in December, when the economy added 312,000 jobs.

The United States is expected to release quarterly gross domestic product's fourth quarter earnings, but data could be delayed as a result of the recent closure. Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management will publish its latest US manufacturing index on Friday.

Chinese officials will arrive Wednesday in Washington to continue commercial talks with the US aimed at resolving the trade war between the two countries. Officials have until March 1 to reach an agreement after US President Donald Trump has said he could move forward with new tariffs on Chinese imports.

The US dollar decreased Friday to a minimum of one week after Trump announced a provisional agreement with lawmakers for three weeks.

The agreement demanded three weeks of unemployment financing and a senior Democratic Assistant said that the money that the president demanded for a border wall was not included. about the inclusion of $ 5.7 billion to help pay a wall along the vast border between the United States and Mexico in any legislation to finance government agencies.

"The reaction of the dollar has not been very solid because uncertainty continues," said Juan Pérez, senior division merchant, at Tempus Inc in Washington

"And it is also a temporary reopening. He also stated that it would have to make a permanent solution," Pérez added.

On Friday afternoon, 0.86% fell at 95.47, the weakest level since January 15, with a weekly decline of 0.55%. On Thursday, the index reached a maximum of three weeks of 96.37.

Paul Ashworth, chief economist at the United States, at Toronto's Capital Economics, said that Trump is "presumably … because of the damage that the closure has in his own approval ratings, especially now that the closure begins to have a larger impact ".

The recovery on Friday, after a president of the European Central Bank, could not alter an already low evaluation of the euro zone economy.

The president of the ECB, Mario Draghi, warned that on Monday, a decrease in the economy of the euro zone could be more pronounced than was thought a few weeks ago, according to the comments that gave signs of delay in the first rise of the bank.

Meanwhile, it reached a maximum of three months against the American currency after a report to the Sun newspaper that the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland had decided to offer conditional support for the first week of the first British minister, Theresa May, of Brexit.

Investing.com has compiled a list of significant events that may affect the markets.

Monday, January 28

The Bank of Japan must publish the minutes of its last meeting of policy configuration.

The president of the ECB, Mario Draghi, will testify about the economy and monetary policy before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels.

England Bank Governor Mark Carney will speak at an event in London.

Tuesday, January 29

New Zealand publishes business figures.

The US will have to issue a consumer confidence report prepared by the Conference Board.

Wednesday, January 30

Australia will publish inflation figures.

The United States will publish a report on the net loan.

Germany will issue preliminary inflation numbers.

It is expected that the anticipated third-quarter US growth forecast will be published, but it could be delayed after the recent government halt.

The United States publishes the ADP report on non-agricultural payrolls and data on pending home sales.

The Federal Reserve announces its federal fund rate and holds a press conference to discuss the monetary decision at its first meeting of the year.

Thursday, January 31

China must publish data on the activity of the manufacturing and services sector.

The eurozone will show a preliminary estimate of the quarter's growth as well as the latest unemployment figures.

Canada will produce figures on the monthly growth of GDP and inflation in commodity prices.

It is hoped that the US will publish figures on personal income and expenses, as well as data on the PCE's basic price index and on the business activity in the Chicago region.

Friday, February 1st

China will publish its PMI manufacturer of Caixin.

U.K. It is to disclose information about the activity of its manufacturing sector.

The euro zone is to publish preliminary inflation data.

The US will have to draft the week with the government report on non-agricultural payrolls in January, together with a report from the Management Institute for the manufacturing activity bid and figures Revised about the consumer sentiment of the University of Michigan.

– Reuters contributed to this report

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