The sharp drop in risk does not accelerate speculation about a return from Argentina to voluntary debt markets. A necessary step for the Government to leave the IMF's dependence as the ultimate lender and better manage the strong maturities ahead.
Between 2020 and 2023, Argentina has to face debt payments of around $ 135,000 million. And the 10,000 million dollars that the Government can transfer from the financial program from 2019 to 2020 can be the signal for the Treasury to find an alternative source of financing to the IMF.
For that, economist Jos Siaba Serrate comes warning We are changing from the end of the year to gradually move forward in the reopening of the debt market to disable the default expectations and reduce the chances that political risk will be s & Extreme in an election year.
"Argentines are sick of pessimism"
In the field of autocomplete prophets, moving away from the ghost of default is synonymous not only with rollovers of maturities, but also of exchange stability.
In this regard, a report by the Inveq consultant published on Friday estimates that the DLAR quote will not only depend on the policy of the Central Bank but on the demand for debt instruments in pesos: "If the scenario points To a reliable candidate for the market, the Treasury managed to renew the short-term letters that are placed on the market with the private ones and do not need to use the dollars provided by the IMF to cancel these commitments. Otherwise, of not renewing short-term commitments, and in the face of a massive sale of assets by local and foreign investors, it would be feasible to elucidate currency growth, to have an impact on general price index and disassociate expectations of deflation. "
"The scenario of sustainability of debt and the controlled advance of the exchange rate is given only in a context in which the Central Bank is credible in its objectives, it holds the demand for money in local currency and the next government is credible for the repayment of its foreign commitments ", estimate the report.
Difficult this year
However, in the short term the signal of a reopening of the voluntary debt market, outside the leases, is out of the horizon. This was explained by Matas Carugati, economist at Managment & Fit: "Today, with a bonus of 666 basic points, I do not think it is a good sign. The Finance Secretary will know how to detect if it's a chance to call. Today I find it difficult to see an opportunity to go to the market, with the risk not yet relatively high and the electoral cycle ahead. If both aspects improve, it can happen. "
"In 2019, he will see it as a symbolic thing. He will show that Argentina despite everything has credit, although this depends on the conditions that are obtained. 2020 will already be something relevant, because the government eventually goes have to go to the market, "added Carugati in dialogue with LPO.
For his part, for Gabriel Zelpo, economist at the head of consultant Elypsis, the opportunity to go to the markets is when six conditions are checked: to keep monetary policy quiet in developed pasts, not to be Out of the world geopolitics, investment funds are not overloaded in Argentine assets as a step back after January of last year, that there is an interest in investor in emerging passages, which others also issue because the portfolios Investors remain diversified and reduce the local risk so that they can obtain 1 acceptable collocation in terms of yields.
"The first five have improved, but the latter is not simple with the electoral uncertainty that we are still presenting. And they are the one that is missing us. Our last big issue in markets was at risk between 350 and 400 basic points For now, although it has decreased, the loss is in line with the rest of the emerging ones. If there is a low by local factor, it will be little. It will be a key to have a clearer picture, "added the economist.
For Zelpo, the question is not only about the county but, in particular, how to return to the markets: "Argentina needs to place local and long-term debt in debt. If you start collecting, Locations of this type are likely to help lower the risk. To begin to decrease your risk profile, you need to enable it to make more placements. In this sense, monitor the placements to carry out next week in the local market being important because they are in pesos and in the long term, what Argentina needs, "explained to LPO.
At the beginning of this week, the Treasury managed to roll out 100% of the maturity payments in dollars and next Monday reopen the collocation of Lecaps in pesos with expiration on April 30 and 4% of the nominal monthly payment, and Exit with the first value by 2020, a Lecap at 547 from 2.65% nominal monthly.
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