After 2018 signed by the devaluation of the peso, inflation in 48% and the recession extended to almost all activities, the big question is how will the economy start? at the beginning of the new year. The official forecast of the budget forecasts a 0.5% drop in GDP for all 2019.
The specialists, in this sense, predict a first trimester "difficult" and "complicated" because the year-on-year variations of the activity in general will continue to fall, reflecting more the conditions of what happened in 2018, they explain. In any case, the recovery would come very slowly from the second quarter with an improvement of some sectors of the activity and of the salaries. The main doubt is what will happen with the exchange rate stability, interest rates and country risk, which at current levels implies a serious financial stress, pose.
"One of the priorities in the 2019 economic agenda is that the Central Bank is able to lower the rate of interest without escaping the dollar, "he says Federico Furiase, Economist of the consultant Eco Go. "It is also necessary for wages to recover from inflation. Something that is complicated today in a context where political uncertainty overtakes country risk," she says.
The country risk, the variable that follows the performance of the Argentine bonds in the exterior, "leaves the Central Bank unchanged in order to go faster with the interest rate. With which thing, It is also difficult to boost creditIn turn, the analyst sees, in the short term, "a gradual recovery of the real wage, the most stagnant credit and in this context," he said. Companies that may have a bit of unemployment, "he says.
for Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina, Economist of EcolatinaThe first question is how the exchange rate calmly follows. "With the country risk exceeding 800 points, it is clear that Argentina does not have access to funding. While the country will meet the requirements of the IMF, while payments will be available during 2019, then it will be necessary to go out to place a debt, by the middle of 2020 ", explains. "This financial uncertainty is what cloud perspectives," he says.
On the other hand, "we could have a favorable first semester, with the recovery of some sectors, with revenues that would begin to grow more, given that there is one formal opening of parity in April, Guilds that have automatic wage adjustments and others that adjust for retirement mobility. "
Agricultural harvesting is a point in favor of the coming economy, "especially in corn and soy, Which had a strong bounce after drought, "says Sigaut Gravina." And also other transactional sectors that react with the highest type of change, such as agriculture, mining, oil and gas, between others. Maybe, some industries, like the automobile, can export more ".
seconds Ramiro Castiñeira, of econometricIn 2019, he started "ironing", "touching the floor" of the crisis. With the exception of Tourism, which is the only candidate to recover, the first quarter of the year is "still difficult". Recently after the second quarter, with the agricultural crop, could begin to raise the activity, forecast.
Fausto Spotorno, Economist of the study Ferreres & AsociadosHe also believes that the first quarter of 2019 is complicated. "Except Tourism, there are no variables that push the economy too much. But after the second quarter, positive data could be obtained, thanks to the agro, which will have a faster growth, 39; some industrial sectors, "he says.
On the side of inflation, which this year culminates in the order of 48%, economists agree that it will be kept off next year. In fact, according to the expectations of Central Bank analysts, the price index (CPI), would raise 27.5% in 2019.
Consumption, another variable in weight in the economic activity, will also have to wait some months to get to the surface. "There will be one partial recovery for the improvement of income, "warns Sigaut Gravina. But we must not forget that in 2018, purchasing power lost about 11 points against inflation, he recalled the analyst at Clarín.
The purchase of durable goods, meanwhile, will still follow a trail slower than massive consumptionDue to the lack of credit, the experts point out. In particular, sales in supermarkets, warehouses and self-service (mass consumption) are also intended to wait a while for its rise.
Juan Manuel Primbas, an analyst at the consulting firm Kantar Worldpanel, warns that, in the first half of 2019, consumption would fall 4%. And in the second half, it would grow 2%.
On the influence of the international context on the local economy, "It does not look favorable for the next year"A recent Ecolatina report warned: "International financial conditions will be a bit more restrictive and we do not expect a rise in the price of commodities. However, the growth prospects of our main business partners are positive, particularly in Brazil" , consigned the report.