The dollar was getting used to, as far as the year goes by, a float at the bottom of the exchange rate and even stayed under this floor for several days. This led several times to the Central Bank to intervene with purchases in the market to prevent the price from continuing to sting. In this context, the interest rates in pesos of the fixed periods fall to the rhythm of the daily Leliq that bids the monetary authority.
The new situation, with a demand for grinded dollars, requires rethink strategies to better take care of savings. The price of the American currency may seem tempting, but a context of exchangeable tranquility that extends also cautiously invites you to take advantage of the still high rates of instruments in pesos.
Analysts and experts from the financial market consulted by TN.com.ar They consider that the only foolish thing is to have all the savings in the same investment. The most recommended is mix the position in dollars and pesos so that at least the risk is the investor the dollarized ratio is greater and vice versa.
For those who may be at a slightly higher risk, some instruments in pesos give a profitability of 4% monthly, Which no longer offer the fixed deadlines. But in any case, good opportunities appear in the two currencies. The yield is superior to the expected inflation that – according to the Market Expectations Relief (REM) that the Central Bank produces – will be higher than 2 percent at least until June.
For those who do not have dollars
Did the dollar hit the floor? Is it a buying opportunity? For the financial market analyst Juan Manuel Carnevale, this is answered knowing the time horizon that each savior has. "If it is short-term, there is a door to take advantage of weights in pesos and to remove differences, because there are no waiting for foreign exchange swaps"He commented.
"Long-term investor can take advantage of buying dollars at this price because the Central Bank undertook to buy if it pierced the band, and This means that the dollar is cheapIt is therefore a buying opportunity. It is even very likely that it may be even cheaper in the near future, "he said.
For those who subscribed fixed deadlines attracted by its fees, what they touched 50% between October and November, the director of the Escuela Argentina de Finanzas Personales Mariano Otálora, recommends looking at the longest mistakes so as not to lose good returns. "To guarantee a high interest rate, taking into account that they will start downloading, it would be best to get longer fixed deadlines. If I know that today's rates are higher than those I can get in the future, the recommendation would be to extend the term. "
For a Central Bank regulation last October, A fixed-term fork can capitalize on interest every 30 days. This way, if a savior had a fixed term of 90 days, he could be getting the interest each month without having to wait for the deposit to end.
For those who encourage you to go one step further, there are other instruments in pesos that can have good returns and that are easy to acquire. the coach Natalia Gorgoschidse believes that the best options within conservative profiles are Capitalization Letters (Lecap), which can give a 4% monthly fee, or the Common Investment Funds (FCI). "We suggest having diversified currency taking advantage of the rates offered by the market until the end of February"He commented.
Both the Lecap and the FCI can be subscribed as a banking client. It will only be necessary to open a commission account or investment account. On Monday, the Ministry of Finance will receive bids for Lecap for two periods: 89 days (interest rate of 4% monthly) and 547 days (2.65% monthly). This last option is for the more risky because it is an option in pesos until August of 2020.
The alternative least publicized by banks, but that is effective as a reserve of value are the deposits linked to inflation. these UVA fixed deadlines They are attractive because, when indexed in the general index of prices, they will never lose their value in pesos, and even banks give some extra rate points as an incentive.
The particularity of this type of deposits is that they require a little more patience: they usually offer from 90 days at least. But the regulations also run for this type of investment, so that you can also receive the interest each month.
For those who already have dollars
Is it time to change the dollars and "make rate" in pesos taking advantage of the changing calm? According to Otálora, "for those who have dollars entering pesos they have a very high gap in the price they buy, then you can lose a lot. In any case, You can try to sell at a rate of exchange as high as possible in stock companies that have better prices. "In any case, it recommends not allocating more than 30% of the dollars to the rates in pesos.
Carnevale agrees that "it is a matter of perception of risk". "If you are risky, you can go to pesos, but you need to know what At some point the exchange rate will be corrected"He warned.
Before leaving the dollars "asleep" under the mattress or in a safe, analysts recommend putting these "currencies" to work. Santiago Abdala, from Personal Inversiones Portfolio, argues: "In dollars, for the conservatives, them letes They are undoubtedly attractive, the last bidding aimed at a minimum rate of 4.5% per year, more than double the one that offers a fixed termAt risk we believe very limited. "
Gorgoschidse, in turn, adds another option besides the lees: "If you are looking to have it The option to withdraw at any timeThe Common Investment Fund – this instrument is the star – is a good suggestion. " Liquidity is a variable to keep in mind especially if there are fast decisions in volatile contexts.