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How does this economic plan end?


Are you getting so long-term stability? Have you laid the foundations in a solid way to wait until you can also devise instruments to begin to grow? Every time that Argentina gets, in any case, that there are several months running calm with the dollar, hopefuls begin to bloom, without noticing it, it has reached the # 39; Beginning of the long-established stability. Whoever thinks may be wrong and a lot. Let's see why: if the dollar is flat and prices rise at a lower rate than a few months ago, it is simply due to two factors: the monetary base is "stuck" and does not rise, promoting a brake on the stock as well of the deposits, and especially of the fixed periods, and the interest rate continues to fly in the stratosphere. And the fact that the interest rate has been able to stay at very high levels without causing insolvent notorious episodes so far is not an argument that serves as a convincing basis to think that this will not happen if Companies and individuals must continue paying rates of 7%, 8% and even more per month for simple loans of very short term. Dysfunctionality is then very obvious and it is logical that yields for the style will eventually cause foreign exchange backwardness while the financial-monetary device devised altogether with the IMF lasts. The problem is that at some point it will no longer last longer. It is not necessary to be guessing to realize this. So that the rulers could pretend with some solid foundation that they seriously examine any claim that the rate of inflation will permanently lower below 2% monthly, first interest rates should be dropped in levels of balance. These levels would be those to which the offer of loanable funds and the demand for loans are equal. Levels that would clearly be at least 25/35 percentage points below the current ones in the financial market, at least. What level would the dollar be if this happened? It's hard to predict, but the truth is that $ 43 / $ 45 per dollar levels would be prehistoric values ​​if that happens. We should not be deceived, then. We are far, far from any serious claim to be close to the stability. And it's not just a question of interest rate: the tourniquet that was put at the level of monetary base, fixing it from September last year to $ 1.3 billion would also fly through the air if, The aforementioned low interest rate exercise is carried out. It happens that because the low interest rate can be made, the level of Leliq existing in the market and exceeding $ 1.2 billion, should be released almost entirely, instantaneously increasing the monetary base and also the # 39; called multiplier mechanism of the same, making all monetary aggregates grow at levels comfortably installed in the two digits. The central question arises then: -What does that end? In what concludes this Royal World-wide experiment of "freezing" the stock of monetary base that there is no precedent in the world? Well, two things can happen.

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