A new scenario of fragmentation and party involvement of social organizations appears in the public sphere and set fire to warnings in the Government. After almost three years of negotiations, agreements, concessions and mutual benefits, the reality begins to change radically. The beginning of the election year and the economy at the height of the crisis offer objective conditions to jeopardize the peace of unstable equilibrium in which cohesion officials and social leaders coexist.
Increased tension, unfulfilled agreements, street cuts without warning, radicalization of discourse, intra-sectoral competition for more benefits for each organization (or each new fraction), escalation of demand. These are the facts and meanings that the Government started registering with concern a few months ago. In the past few weeks there has been a slope, and hostile proposals have reflected the force last Wednesday. That day, a demonstration that completely interrupted the traffic on Avenue 9 de Julio, surprised ordinary interlocutors of social movements. Within the organizations it was accepted that the measure was adopted with some difficulty and without sufficient internal discussion. The most important fighters ended up moderate. Harassment in the context of excessive fragility.
Everything suggests that no one wants to lose a poster in this accumulated dispute in order to reposition itself in the opposition and at the same time benefit the state. This other will not be so easy: the partisan rebellion of social leaders takes away the space for the clearest and the most listening officers of social problems.
It might be said that Juan Grabois, the leader of the Popular Economy Workers' Movement (CTEP) and close ties to the Pope, illustrated the beginning of a new stage on the day he followed Christina Kirchner to the courts cited as the cause of corruption.
Strictly speaking, the starting point should be located on avenue 9 de Julio on February 21, when Moiano clans surrounded Grabais and other social figures, such as Daniel Menendez from Barrios de Pie; then the victorious Cegetet Juan Carlos Schmid; leaders of two CTAs, Hugo Iaski and Pablo Micheli, and a large delegation of Kirchner representatives, led by Maxim Kirchner at the foot of the stage.
It was the beginning of a dynamic approach and ears in the action of the sector and actors who had not yet hidden (and some emphasized) differences of origin, militancy, ethical behavior, political projects and power-building. Even with many inconsistencies, several of those who have been suspicious since the start of the end of the Kirchner government are now beginning to merger with the growing conflict with the government and at the top of the possible candidacy of Krisina. The causes are multiple, but the illusion of the return of power ahead of declines in government popularity due to the economic crisis is a powerful engine for all. Not only for the Kirchnerists, who lost control of the nation-state and Buenos Aires, or Moojan, the jakeados for justice. It is also for the leaders of social organizations, despite the almost privileged treatment they enjoyed, especially from the Ministry of Social Development, led by Carolina Stanley. In his leadership lies the key to his problems. Stanley was a trusted interlocutor for social leaders, but also a skilled manager who took the power of mediation and broke down the client's network of some of them, with the management of the resources that the state allocates to the most vulnerable sectors. Social plans, but also other contributions, such as canteens, snack bars and various ventures in neighborhoods with the highest needs, are also included. In this universe, not only are large groups of the most famous leaders, but also Catholic and Evangelical churches and smaller organizations with which the national government, as well as Maria Eugenia Vidal, are working more and more. Questions of power and representation in the conflict.
If the policy of reducing aid mediation is getting deeper, the capital of social leaders suffers. Even if the economic situation does not improve and the possibility of entering the world of formal work for the vast majority of excluded, which is its basis for support, continues to move away. His power lies in the ability to manage assistance and mobilization capacity. The first is on hold. The last, for now, remains. She bet on leaders and what has been offered to him by some in politics these days. The government suggests that Moiano has given resources to retain his ability to take the streets.
The economic crisis and its political influence have paradoxical effects that also help explain the construction of a new scenario. The government weakened, but it did not lose the hard core of support, while the new actor has not yet appeared to challenge its presentation. Nor did they show any space in the conditions to move from the main opposition to Kirchner.
Polarization continues to order politics. Given the possibility that the ruling party is competing in the 2019 presidential election and that Macri was re-elected, other approaches that Grabois initiated with Kristina came from other social leaders, including some who moved with kirnerism. This is the case of the Evita movement, headed by Fernando Chino Navarroom and Emilio Persico, who recently met and received another pardon that the former president is enjoying the offer for those who return to their place.
A little far, but in the process of accessing and possibly ears, Barrios de Pie, with Daniel Menendez on the front. Menendez and Victoria Donda made the first step away from Libres del Sur to start a dialogue with Kirchner, although they retain certain differences and ask Grabais to "throw their head" with Kristin. The division is added only to those who manage power and subtract negotiation capacities from those who want to join, without losing their identity and relevance. Grabeis, however, tends to confuse everything, as it was recently. After his passionate defense of the former president, he criticized Kirchner's corruption and condemned many leaders. Like Lilita Carrio on the opposite side.
Internal differences, seeking the prominence of each leader and sector, as seen on July 9, last week, affect everyday life and political reality.
The government monitors the social situation on a daily basis, strives to strengthen the aid as soon as it recognizes complex situations and prepares to face the hot and half moon.
The last Sunday of November, with the summit of Heads of State and Government G-20, can provide each and every pre-decoration in December that is waiting for us on the streets. The government is dreaming that this summit will bring external advantages, with internal influence to move itself. Kirkenism will be part of those who protest against the international settlement of the ruling party and will once again demonstrate against the great powers. It's not just an ideology. Nothing that could improve Macri's situation and distance the possibility of collapse of its management will be well accepted. Every time you feel more comfortable with those who are radicalized.
Moderate on both sides have a huge challenge and a huge opportunity to avoid imposing extreme positions. It will not be easy. Order keepers at any price and snails no matter what the costs become the basis, not only in Argentina.