Saturday , March 6 2021

Surveys, courts and intendants: keys to the unification of the election in the Province – 01/30/2019



When the debate for a possible split was beginning to take power, the confirmation of the governor María Eugenia Vidal that he will not leave President Mauricio Macri alone and will unify his election with the national reopened the discussion: what can happen now that they go together? Is the 2015 story repeated? How does Cristina affect her? Based on these triggers, but above all to statistics of surveys and historical antecedents, Bugler Set the keys that reinstated the non-split.

What the polls say

Until now, the scenarios that combined the names of Macri, Cristina and Vidal did it with another hypothesis already ruled out: that the governor could replace the President in a national bid. In these questions, generally in polls throughout the country, the representative from Buenos Aires it appeared above all.

The question now is what will happen only in the Province and with the ballots stuck. Especially in the crucial first round of October, when it is defined who will govern the district in the next four years, in a comic (the venue) that does not provide for balloting.

Within the January surveys that preceded this newspaper one has purely Buenosairean numbers. It's that Circuits, a small firm, which is usually consulted on the left because it measures this force separately. And it has an important antecedent: he corrected the order and barely lost the percentages of the result of the provincial legislative elections of 2017.

On this opportunity, he presented a work of 1,158 cases, released between 9 and 14 of this month, with an error margin of +/- 3.5%.

There are a couple of interesting facts: Vidal and Cristina have a similar image in the Province (37.5% positive and 46.6% negative the first one, and 38.1% and 49.2% the second one), and Macri comes underneath (31.1% and 59.7%).

When asked for a voting intention, Circuitos asks a question that meets Macri with Vidal (as if they were together on the ballot?) And then Cristina with another referent K (Agustín Rossi). The unit of Citizen Unit is up, but little by little, almost within the margin of error: 32.4% to 30.7%.

Then, perhaps returning to the idea that Vidal could go for the Presidency, he measured it in a hand by hand with Cristina. Also to Macri, of course. And there, Both leaders of Cambiemos are above. The governor for much more (48.7% to 42%, against 43.8% to 42.7%).

In addition, the questions come: when they share a ballot, will Macri throw it down to Vidal? Will she push him up? Will there be a ballot court?

A consultant who works for Citizen Unit It provides two very interesting data. One, who does not believe that this difference against Macri is manifested in the polls. "The real vote of Cambiemos is that of Vidal. Now people are angry with Macri, but if you hurry, the one who votes to Vidal will end up voting to Macri, especially if Cristina is on the other side. "

The other data: "In January, Cristina grew 3 or 4 points in Provincia, but this has to be confirmed in February. January is a month that has 'bias' for the holidays. It might be that voter K has not gone away and that's why when you call to find what you find in the house and Cambiemos, no ".

Anchor, catapult or cut?

The doubt was raised in the previous point: How can the relationship of forces between Macri and Vidal work? Also one could add: and that of Cristina with his candidate for governor?

The subject has a mediated antecedent, with a pair of actors in common. In the first round of 2015, Macri lost the presidential in the Province against Daniel Scioli by 4.21 points (37.13% to 32.92%), while Vidal defeated Aníbal Fernández by 4.31 (39.49% against 35 , 18%) for governance. A very particular statistical coincidence occurred: Vidal and Scioli both obtained about 3.4 million votes; and Macri and Aníbal parked at 3 million. As if ballot companions had been invested. But many of those 400 thousand suffrages of difference toward the candidate of Cambiemos, in fact, more than Anibal came from the side of the Renovador Front, which also suffered a similar cut: Massa for president took 300 thousand votes more than Solá for governor. Many opted for the Massa / Vidal variant. In this regard, Primaries usually serve as a computer. Will it repeat?

Look also

Of course neither Vidal nor Macri are the same as 2015 and Cristina comes into play. That also has an antecedent to show: when it combined with Scioli in Province in 2007 and 2011 they had similar percentages. There was very little ballot cutting. Will the same happen now with your candidate to governor? Caution: despite some current discrediting, in those opportunities, Scioli had a better image than the former president in the district. Now, according to several pollsters, who best represents the Christian vote and suffer less leaks would be Axel Kicillof. But the petitioner who does not want the PJ intendants is right.

The third in discord and the game of the intendants

For the 2015 antecedent, in the case of the election to governor, we will also have to be attentive to them third parties in discord. Four years ago, dupla Massa / Solá performed more than worthy performance in the Province. But, for now, that third space-Federal Alternative-has a national and national deployment Bueno nulo. There is not just one candidate who sounds to eventually accompany Massa or Juan Manuel Urtubey as a candidate for governor.

The only one that sounded the start, Florencio Randazzo, with a good and good image in the district, is in prudent silence. He does not end up digesting the failures of his last two electoral bets: in 2015, Cristina did not even let him compete for the presidency and in 2017 he finished fourth for senator. Maybe His only consolation has been to have collaborated in the defeat of the former president against Esteban Bullrich.

Look also

Much is still a long way, but if Alternativa Federal does not manage to offer a competitive candidate, the polarization between Vidal and his rival Kirchner can be deepened. This tension could boost ballot cuts.

Also, as already mentioned, it will be essential the role of another key group in the Buenosairean elections: the intendants. With an add-on this year. For legislative reform, everyone can re-elect but only once. Will be to anything or nothing. And you already know how reluctant you can be the communal bosses when they play their own skin. A betrayal can be opened to save yourself. Néstor Kirchner himself suffered in 2009. Will the macristan intendants be encouraged to divide their ballot and Vidal's card with that of Cristina if it suits them? The circus has not yet opened. But entertaining functions are expected. They had asked to unfold.


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