The value of the dollar concludes with weak weakness the first month of 2019. In the period the currency yielded more than 2% and the Reappearance of the Central Bank as a buyer of currencies had one null repercussion in the evolution of the type of changes.
It's that a market much more nourished for settlement of exports, with the protagónica offer of the record harvest of wheat, plus the Re-enter funds that are passed to pesos to take advantage of them high interest rates and very low stock and home equity assessments, determine that the dollar has low demand in one a place that operates about USD 800 million a day, An uncommon volume for the first month of the year.
Diego Martínez Burzaco, MB Investment Analyst, has pointed out that "the external financial situation is the one who is giving this one push up capital inflow in the region, Mainly in Brazil and by spill in Argentina ".
After trading under 38 pesos in the morning, at Nation Bank The US currency is sold at $ 38.10, With a drop of 30 cents or 0.8 percent. It is the lowest price since December 3 of last year. in the average of the City of Buenos Aires banks offers a 38.07 pesos.
As it happened in January, the Central Bank made foreign exchange purchases in the wholesale market, an initiative that did not occur since June 2017. This Thursday it acquired other USD50 million at an average price of 37,0896 pesos. Thus, in the first month of the year it accumulated purchases of USD 560 million, within the margin imposed by agreement stand by With the International Monetary Fund (IMF), USD 700 million a month.
The monetary entity set out to buy back currencies as the wholesale price is below floor area of "no intervention", Which marks this Thursday $ 37.86, $ 37,886 for the 1st of February.
des Research for Traders "The BCRA's objective is for the exchange rate to move within the free float band It would change and for that reason the market expects the entity to be defined today and tomorrow If you raise the sum of daily purchases from USD 50 million a USD 150 million to generate a higher demand for foreign exchange. "
Martínez Burzaco say a Infobae that "the Central Bank should consider using Additional tools to support the exchange rate In the non-intervention area, such as allowing them Banks slowly recompose their exposure to foreign currency in its net equity, which is today 0 percent ".
Martínez Burzaco pointed out that "the Central can accelerate the low interest rates and do a fine surgery job, to measure the sensitivity of the market, So that the # 39; stock of fixed installments You do not go to the dollar significantly, "in particular" in a election year in which at some time the dollarization is going to accelerate of portfolios ".
yes They were reduced by more than 4 percentage points in January, for under 55% per annum, They're still high enough to put a brake on the reactivity of the economy and they are one ballast for a possible rise of the dollar, a conservative position that in this framework can not compete with similar yields in local currency. On the one, the high taxes and the "exchange calm" are crucial today for slow down inflation.
The economist of MB Inversiones also observed "the sITEM OF THE POINTS Banks, because the BCRA could open this liquidity tap to allow the loss of the cost of money and to stop paying some lace. "Since the arrival of Guido Sandleris to the Central Bank the entity It allows banks to integrate lace with LELIQ to encourage them to continue to collect deposits. In this way, "banks would return to their role of natural financial intermediation," said Martinez Burzaco.
IS THE DOLLAR GOOD?
The erratic evolution of the exchange rate in recent months, today one 1.7% below the free-floating band, add tension when it is considered that the Inflation remained at an important pace despite its gradual decline.
The green ticket got one record on September 28 last, of $ 41.85 for sale to the public and $ 41.25 for wholesaler, A movement that many analysts considered exaggerated. Since then, in the last four months the dollar lost 10%, While in this period the average retail price accumulated a rise of almost 14 percent.
Therefore, the dollar in Argentina It lost purchasing power by 21.1% between October and JanuaryWhen all the other financial alternatives offered a positive income.
Of course the exchange competitiveness It does not depend only on the dollar. the appreciation of other currencies of commercial partners with respect to the American currency moderates this supposed "exchange delay" limited in the very short term.
For example, In Brazil, the dollar yielded 9%, From 4.01 reais from September 28 to 3.65 this Thursday. In this sense, the Argentine peso accompanied the performance of the currency of its main trading partner.
Nor should we lose sight of the fact that the green ticket price in Argentina is now 90% higher than a year ago when it closed January 2018 to $ 19.65 wholesaler and $ 19.93 retailer. this one rate almost doubled to that of inflation annual of 47 percent.
According to the Real Multilateral Exchange Rate Index (ITCRM) of the # 39; Central bankThe current competitive advantage of the Argentine peso is similar to that of January 2014 and September 2011, And one 15% higher than achieved on December 17, 2015When the administration of Maurici Macri eliminated the control of changes or "cep".