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What will happen to the dollar in 2019?


At the beginning of October Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) established a "non-intervention zone", That kept the dollar for the seller segment between $ 34 and $ 44 pesos, and that was adjusted daily at a monthly rate of 3%.

For the year beginning the limits of the non-intervention area, they will be updated daily at a monthly rate of 2%, starting at 37,117 and 48,034 pesos per dollar, with a daily update of up to 2% monthly. If you follow the same path as this year, you can expect the currency to remain in the middle of these values.

This means that if the weight depreciates in such a way that the exchange rate is above the upper limit of the non-intervention zone, the BCRA may sell dollars through bids of up to $ 150 million per day.

In this way, the Central Bank will withdraw the pesos you get for the dollars, reinforcing the contraction of the monetary base when it is most required: in the face of a marked decrease in the demand for money.

On the contrary, in the face of a rapid nominal appreciation, it will allow the BCRA to buy foreign currency by bidding up to $ 150 million per day. The monetary base can only grow if there are clear signs of confidence in the weight.

The priorities of the BCRA

In accordance with the objectives set by the monetary authority, "fostering the stability and development of the financial sector" is the priority. In this framework, they will continue to "promote savings instruments in national currency", and will continue along the path to facilitate access to banking operations in different types of businesses.

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