Article written by the collaborator Carlos Junior
I have seen a growing enthusiasm among some Brazilians for the possibility of the American president, Donald Trump, to intervene militarily in the Venezuela.
A very seductive solution, given the chaotic situation that the land of Simon Bolivar is. From the dictator Nicolás Maduro Reluctant to give up power, the use of force seems to be the only option.
It just seems. The situation is not as simple as it seems, and the future scenario does not offer any hope for a quick and convenient solution. Donald Trump has shown a tendency towards the diplomatic resolution of the problem. It's like this. A military intervention in Venezuela, with the game of weights and counterweights of geopolitics, would be a mistake of the American president.
Venezuela is a socialist dictatorship. This is true. Chávez's regime nationalized resources, closed trade with developed countries and used the military to prosecute and murder opponents. The results of a socialist economic management are evident to all those who have some historical knowledge and more than two neurons: lack of resources, famine, hunger and misery raised up to n at Degree and consequent collapse. In addition to bringing the country to chaos and the lack of basic goods and services, the Venezuelan totalitarian regime has spoiled the military greatly, guaranteeing its support against any type of coup that threatens its power. The landscape has no hope.
Even with this diagnosis, it is necessary to take into account the costs and consequences of a military intervention in Venezuela. Historically, these US military actions ended in a bad penny, if they ended up in some cases. In addition, the American political and financial situation does not allow the president to exert a war like his predecessors.
Bush, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama United States in various conflicts. In the case of the first, wars have always been accompanied by deep economic recessions. Wage spending, be it financial, humanitarian or political, is huge. Illustrative only, for example: the war in Iraq cost just over $ 2 billion and 4,487 troops killed. Funding is almost half of the federal budget approved in 2017. The US government has an estimated public debt of $ 21.5 trillion. Making another war would be imprudent at best.
The consequences are not the best either. Despite the climate of chaos, the so-called civil war is still not a reality. The Lima Group has been seeking a diplomatic solution to isolate dictator Maduro, forcing him to abandon power. A US military invasion would not only start a war but would compound the problem by forcing military loyal to the government to deepen the crimes and violations committed throughout the Chavista regime. A Syria It is the best example of this. The then president Barack Obama Establish groups of opposition to the Syrian dictator Bashar Al-Assad in the civil war We are in 2019 and the conflict did not end, giving rise to the death of 511,000 people, without forgetting that the rebel groups gave rise to Islamic state after.
American troops are generally not welcome to foreign countries. Local populations see the American military presence as an affront to the sovereignty of their respective nations. In the cases of Islamic countries, the religious component is strong, and US occupations and bases are considered confrontations to religion. In the Latin case – more specifically Venezuela – it inscribes in the anti-American narrative that imperialism is responsible for the fragile economic and social situation in the region. A fight without local support can drag the potential conflict for years, and in previous cases, Americans have not won anything in return.
The American conservative was assertive in commenting on the possibility of a military intervention:
"Military intervention in Venezuela would normally be very unlikely, but in an administration where the president has repeatedly raised the idea, we must take the possibility seriously. Absolutely no American interest would be attended to by a Venezuelan war, and will be classified as one of The most stupid wars that the United States has ever fought. It goes without saying that it would be illegal. Venezuela is an economic summit and a humanitarian crisis, but his government does not pose any threat to the United States and who governs the country not It is a matter of vital importance for us. "
The "FOX News" anchor Stuart Varney He was also in this line about the situation:
"What do we have to do? In my opinion, nothing. Certainly nothing at this time. We do not believe this mess, it is not our fault and, if we intervene in any way, we will be accused of" Yankee imperialists "and Latin America would embrace the antitump. "
Take a look at the video:
Although neoconservatives do not share the same opinion, we include the national security adviser John Bolton -, the correct thing is not to use the force to solve the question.
I think the United States should do something in the diplomatic arena against dictator Maduro. 90% of the Venezuelan population is below the threshold of poverty, hunger and chaos are widespread. But intervention and military occupation would be a big mistake for President Trump. The recent examples and the current situation show this.
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Article written by the collaborator Carlos Junior