Several senior members of the UNDP federal group warned NDP leader Jagmeet Singh in June that he could not stand as a party leader if he loses the next month's election to Burnaby South, he has learned CBC News.
Two new Democratic MPs, who spoke with CBC News anonymously, were among a small group of members of the group that met with Singh last summer to say that a loss in the ' The February 25 self-portraiser could lead to overwhelming pressure on him to give up. They are among a group of nine deputies from UNDP who say to CBC News that they believe that Singh would have no choice but to resign if he did not win his place next month.
"We told him that it was going to June, when this was contemplated … that if he does, that's it. It's not as if you were expecting to win. You have to do it. That's it," said a MP at CBC News.
"This was understood. There may be a revisionist story if it does not (win)."
An old NDP strategist is in agreement.
"It's obvious. If you lose a straight line, if you can not win in the People's Republic of Burnaby, where can you win?" said Karl Bélanger, former national director of the NDP and former chief secretary of former director, Tom Mulcair.
"I think that Mr. Singh knows this, and I think he is trying to show everyone who will win this place and who will lead the game in the next elections."
The June meeting was held in a committee room isolated in the basement of the Hill Hill block, the week in which the House of Commons extended during summer vacations.
A play "everything at stake"
Fonts told CBC News that the leader of the NDP agreed on the meeting that was executed in the pre-selection would be an absolute bet. Singh, according to the sources, said he was confident in a victory, which he believed would be in his campaign element in the community.
"So if it fails in the best of cases, in a part of the country we have to do it well: British Columbia, in general, and in particular in Vancouver, I do not know what its argument is for Singh to continue as a leader" . said the highest position of the PND.
In statements to CBC News Friday, Singh stopped asking what he could do if he lost his selection offer, insisting he is in a good position to win.
"I am not focused on myself and I know if we work hard, we will win here," he said. "We're going to win at Burnaby South because people need us."
If Singh has accepted privately that he can not continue if he fails to secure a Commons seat next month, this contradicts his public stance on it. In an interview with Rosemary Barton that was broadcast on CBC 's The National On January 20, Singh insisted that he would continue as a leader even if he loses his vote on February 25.
"I am going to be the leader who directs the New Democratic Party in the 2019 elections," Singh said. "I am sure we will do it well in this assembly. We are connecting with people, we have a lot of help."
In total, CBC and Radio-Canada contacted more than half of the 40 members of the NDP chair. Not all members of the chair contacted by CBC News responded, but most of those who spoke with CBC say they feel confident that Singh will win.
What happens if you lose?
Five refused to comment on what they called a "hypothetical" scenario. Two members of the chair expressed their full support for Singh. Some say they think that the decision to stay or go is resumed with it.
The members of the Caucus are not the only ones who say that Singh has to go if he falls short to Burnaby South Some veterans of the New Democracy campaigns are not in agreement, though at least one points out that Singh's departure could be the result of a messy process.
"First of all, a group of elders of the party would advise that the time had arrived. If it resisted, then a caucus vote, not binding, but humiliating," said the party's strategist, who asked not to be named. "Next, a vote by the Federal Council of the NDP.
"Choosing your time to go gives you the benefit of an elegant outing. Being pushed means it would end up with sadness. Given the paralyzed Liberal (paralyzing) campaign, I doubt that it will come to this."
The liberals recently played Richard T. Lee, a former B.C. legislator, to go on the run after his first candidate, Karen Wang, resigned to a controversial campaign after urging the Chinese to vote for her as the "sunny" Chinese candidate.
CBC News has learned, however, that the NDP is working on various contingency plans that could come into force if Singh fails to Burnaby South.
Plans B, C and beyond
If, for example, Singh loses and immediately moves away as a leader, an option would be to immediately establish a leadership contest, such as that he quickly met in Ontario after Patrick Brown was forced to abandon the position of progressive conservative leader on accusations of bad sexual behavior.
But the federal NDP is in a very different place than in Ontario last year, when they starred in the leadership vote that ended up choosing Doug Ford as a substitute for Brown.
The provincial computers were protagonists in the surveys of the time; According to the CBC survey follower, support from the federal NDP is only 14.2% nationwide. Conservatives in Ontario had accumulated a great war at the time Brown left and could easily afford a convention. The federal PND, for its part, continues to struggle with fundraising.
Another option could see the caucus choose an interim leader. You have suggested two names in NDP circles as potential attendees: B.C. MP Nathan Cullen and Quebec Guy Caron MP.
Any acting leader chosen by the chair should be approved by the federal council before directing the party to the general elections, which would be followed by a leadership career, the only way to choose a permanent leader under the rules of the party.
Some members of the chair have established what they see as an elegant outcome for Singh: offering the post of deputy lieutenant and Ontario lieutenant and letting him run to Brampton East, an area he used to represent provincial Subsequently, Singh could head for the party leadership, politically reinforced for having won a siege in Commons.
Belanger said that if Singh had to lose Burnaby South and then tried to hang himself as the party leader, the only way to eliminate it would be through a review of leadership
But leadership reviews go to party conventions, and the PND does not have any scheduled convention until after the fall of the federal elections. To trigger a leadership review, a special convention should be convened. They could only be summoned by the federal NDP council or at the request of a majority of federal horse-riding associations.
A NDP strategist, who also asked not to be named, is skeptical about the special convention option: "A part of me does not have the faith of these people to bring a knife to the fight.
"These people have a challenge to face the fact that this leader received an overwhelming vote of membership in the first vote (in the leadership career) and then strengthened that vote in February 2018 with an overwhelming support of all member members A lot attended the convention here in Ottawa, when he got 92.8 percent (support). "
Support for the worst
The former NDP MP and the 2012 Leadership candidate, Peggy Nash, said those who work on a contingency plan to take effect if Singh loses in Burnaby South just do the obvious case.
"I like to play chess and I always think there are a few advances and I always have backup plans. I think it's a good sound management for wanting to have contingency plans for what happens," said Nash.
B.C. NDP parliamentarian Don Davies said he is confident that Singh will take his place next month and that his presence in the House of Commons will strengthen his leadership. "I am looking to have many benefits, including our fundraising and our general voting numbers," he said. "I think that everything will be better when Jagmeet's in the house.
"There has been a lot of attention on what happens if he does not win. I think the only just result of when he wins is that he should rest this chat that is happening."