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The yuan will continue to rise in 2019


This refugee asset was performing better, since the pound and the euro faced the winds against Brexit and the budget crisis in Italy.

He expects the yen to end the year as the biggest anti-dollar winners among the main currencies, as investors sought security in the midst of the 2018 uncertainties.

The refuge's asset was performing better, as the pound and the euro faced the winds against Brexit and the budget crisis in Italy, while the war Commercial between the United States and China and the fall in oil prices pressed their peers related to commodities, such as the Canadian dollar. The yen rose more than 2% year-on-year to 110.04 yuan for dollar in London on Monday. Meanwhile, the Japanese currency's share of global reserves increased to 5% in the third quarter, the highest in 16 years.

If the winds against continue in 2019, the yen could "win by default" to face a fourth year in its annual profit streak against the dollar, said Shahab Jalinoos, world leader in foreign exchange trading strategy Credit Suisse Group AG.

"The news in Japan has been less negative than in other places, at least in relation to the original expectations, in the course of 2018," Jalinoos said in a telephone interview. "And this allowed the yen to play the role of a certain safe asset in the frame of a generally negative year for risk assets."

This year, the yen rose amid the dollar's weakness from the beginning, but returned these profits after the dollar changed things in April. After touching its weakest level of the year with respect to the dollar in October, the yen progressed in December in the middle of volatility in stock markets.

In the absence of factors that could inspire the confidence of investors in risk assets and global growth in 2019, Jalinoos expects the yen to remain the favorite. The average forecast of a Bloomberg survey forecasts a strengthening of the yen around 109 dollars by the end of 2019.

However, Marvin Barth, from Barclays Plc, said the Japanese currency could still gain more, at 107 yen per dollar by the end of 2019. The yen's advance of the year that will come when the investors They are concentrated in the risk of the dollar and are looking for diversification sources in the Japanese currency, he said.

"The yen is greatly underestimated from a long-term historical perspective," Barclays's emerging market and macro market research chief said in a telephone interview. The forecast of 107 is not "a great appreciation in the yen, but it is surpassing other currencies".

Jingyi Pa, a market strategist based in Singapore at IG Asia Pte, echoes the strongest yen forecasts in 2019.

"With the variety of concerns that include the uncertainty about the prospect of growth that is expected to continue, refuge trade can be in favor," he said. "The next break of the current Fed payout cycle could see performance differentials helping the yen at its next stage, which had been absent in the last two years."

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