2018Year12Index of purchasing managers in China
The non-manufacturing business index index was reduced by one liter
– Zhao Qinghe, senior statesman of the Office of Industry Research of the Office of the National Statistics Office, interprets the Index of Purchasing Managers of China for December 2018
On December 31, 2018, the National Statistics Office of the Research Center Industry Service and the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing of China published the Index of China Shopping Managers. In this sense, explained Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Research Center of the Industry of the Service of the National Office of Statistics.
In December 2018, the manufacturing PMI in China was 49.4%, with a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, whose production index was 50.8% and It continued to be in the expansion range, the non-manufacturing index was 53.8%, up 0.4 last month. The percentage of expansion has accelerated, the PMI's total production index is 52.6%, which is 0.2 percentage points lower than in the previous month. It is still in the growth zone, which indicates that the global production and operation activities of Chinese companies continue to expand.
First, the index of manufacturing purchasing managers declined
In 2018, the average PMI of manufacturing was 50.9%, which indicates that the general manufacturing industry maintained growth throughout the year. Recently, due to the intensification of the friction of international trade and the slowdown in world economic growth, the development environment of China's manufacturing industry has changed constantly. In December, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, with a decrease of 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month and weakness was weakened. The main features this month: first, the downward pressure on market demand has increased, and companies are expected to be cautious. The new order index was 49.7%, with a decrease of 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, and the expected index of production and operation activities was 52.7% , with a decrease of 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, both losses during the year. At the same time, some industries have gradually entered the low production season, and companies are cautious about recent market expectations. Secondly, due to factors such as external environmental variables and lower internal demand, the recent import and export boom has been lower. The new export index index and import index were 46.6% and 45.9%, respectively, with a decrease of 0.4 and 1.2 percentage points with respect the previous month, and everything remained below the critical point. Third, due to the large price fluctuations of some international products, the price index continued to decline. The purchase price index of the main raw materials and the previous factory price index were 44.8% year-on-year and 43.3% lower, respectively, with a decrease of 5, 5 and 3.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. Among them, the processing and baking industry of petroleum raw materials and the purchase price index and raw materials of the ferrous cast processing industry and the exfabricated price index are below the low level of 35.0%, the decrease is more obvious. Fourthly, all PMIs from different companies on a scale have fallen. The PMI of large companies was 50.1%, with a 0.5 percentage point drop from the previous month, slightly above the critical point: the PMI for small and medium-sized businesses was 48.4% 48.6%, respectively, with a decrease of 0.7 and 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month.
At the same time, it should be noted that, although the manufacturing PMI has decreased, production continues to grow and corporate cost pressures have eased. The production index of this month is 50.8% and continues in the expansion range. Among the 21 surveyed industries, the production index of 14 industries was above the critical point, among them, manufacturing industries such as refined tea for food and beverages, special equipment and aerospace equipment for railroad vessels were higher to 57.0%, and the rate of growth increased. According to the results of the survey, the proportion of companies that reflect high costs of raw materials and high logistics costs this month was 37.3% and 28.6%, with 2.0 and 0 , 4 percentage points respectively, respectively, compared to the previous month, both losses.
Second, the non-manufacturing business index index has risen steadily
In 2018, the non-manufacturing business index was 54.4% and the general year was maintained at a relatively high level. In December, the non-manufacturing business index was 53.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month and the recent non-manufacturing expansion accelerated.
The service industry maintained constant growth. The index of commercial activity of the services industry was 52.3%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. Above the critical point, the service industry continued to grow rapidly. Among the 21 surveyed industries, the index of business activity in 13 industries is in the expansion range, and the foundations of the service industry are generally good. Among them, the index of commercial activities in rail transport, telecommunications, banking, insurance and other financial industries is located in the high end of more than 60.0%, and the industry has achieved a rapid growth , but the transport by road, postal, catering, values, real estate and other industries are located in the contraction zone, Total amount has decreased. From the expectations of the market, the index of expectations of the service industry's commercial activity is 60.2%, returning to the highest level of 60.0 %. Among them, the forecast index of commercial activities in rail transport, air transport, catering, tourism and other industries increased with a large margin, indicating that with the focus of the Spring Festival of Cap d & # 39; Year, the demand of the market of industries closely related to the consumption of the homes and the trips will be published progressively. Expectations are generally optimistic.
The construction industry has significantly improved. The commercial activity index was 62.6%, up 3.3 percentage points from the previous month, and increased to a high level. It has accelerated the growth rate of the construction industry, which indicates that you have recently carried out a series of policy measures to promote the stable development of investment in infrastructure. Regarding demand and market expectations, the new index of the construction industry was 56.5%, which reached an economic rank higher than 56.0% for three consecutive months, Market demand continued steady growth, the index of commercial activity expectations was 64.5%, which continued at a high level. The interval is 0.4 percentage points more than the same period of the previous year and the confidence of the company in the development of the industry is reinforced.
Third, completePMIThe output index continues to expand
In 2018, the average PMI production index was 53.7%, which indicates that the general production and operation activities of Chinese companies maintained constant growth throughout the year. In December, the PMI's total production index was 52.6%, which was 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous month and continued to be in the boom area. The general activities of production and operation of Chinese companies continued to expand and the pace of expansion accelerated. The manufacturing production index and the non-manufacturing business activity index, which constitute the PMI full production index, were 50.8% and 53.8%, respectively, One quarter per quarter and the non-manufacturing business index index was 3.0 percentage points more than the industrial production index. The role of non-manufacturing in economic growth has improved even more.
(Editor: Song Yuhui)