Monday , May 10 2021

A raw supply, a global economy in focus



Oil markets struggled to find their base Wednesday after falling 7 percent at the previous session, with large supplies and an unstable demand spectrum, keeping investors on the verge.

FUTURE oil in South Texas (VTI) reached 55.54 dollars for barrel at 0159 GMT, which is 15 cents less than the last settlement.

The international reference price of Brent oil oil increased by 4 cents to 65.51 dollars per barrel.

The market fell by more than 7% the previous day. Crude oil has lost more than a quarter of its value since the beginning of October, which has become one of the biggest crashes since prices were dropped in 2014.

Reducing the price of the spots has turned the whole curve for crude oil upside down.

The prices of the spots in September were significantly higher than those for later delivery, a structure known as a downturn that implies a solid market because it is unattractive to put oil in the warehouse.

By mid-November, the curve went into contagion, when crude prices for immediate delivery were cheaper than those for later shipment. This implies an excessively used market, as it makes it attractive for the storage of oil for later sale.

Oil markets are under pressure from both sides: an increase in supply and increased concern over the economic slowdown.

US production of crude oil from the seven main basins in the United States is expected to record a record of 7.94 million barrels a day (bpd) in December in December, the US Energy Information Directorate (EIA) said Tuesday.

This increase in production on land helped make total production in the United States reach a record 11.6 million bpd, making the United States the world's largest oil producer ahead of Russia and Saudi Arabia.

Most analysts expect US production to rise above 12 million bpd in the first half of 2019.

"In our opinion, this will fall below $ 85 a barrel (for oil prices)," said Jon Andersson, product manager at Vontobel Asset Management.

US production growth contributes to an increase in inventories.

The US ended the week from $ 2 to $ 432 million over the week, while refineries reduced production, according to a group of industries that the US Oil Institute showed on Tuesday.

The cartel of the producers of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) monitors the supply jump and price reduction with concern.

OPEC has increasingly published a public statement that it will begin to deter crude in 2019 to boost bids and support prices.

"OPEC and Russia are under pressure to lower the current levels of production, which is the decision we expect at the next OPEC meeting on December 6," Andersson said.

This makes the OPEC collide with US President Donald Trump, who publicly supports low oil prices and who urged OPEC not to reduce production.


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