Wednesday , August 4 2021

Dax makes a roller coaster: “We have a new market condition”

Düsseldorf After a good start to trading, disillusionment appeared on the German stock market. But a friendly Wall Street won prices again.

Shortly before the close of trading, the Dax rose 0.8 percent again, to 15,250 points. For now, that stopped yesterday’s sales, but the key 15,300-point index was unable to regain its position. There was exactly the maximum of the day.

Yesterday’s trading day also showed the importance of technical graphics brands. Many investors had the lower limit of the side phase held since mid-May, with 15,300 points. But when the Dax fell below that mark, significantly higher sales followed. From a technical standpoint, Tuesday’s daily high of 15,300 points was a classic setback, a test of past support level, which is now a resistance.

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For Thomas Altmann of QC Partners, “stock markets lived primarily on the fact that the willingness to sell was low.” Conversely, if the willingness to sell remains high or increases with further falls, price losses are likely to occur. In recent days, it has been observed that investors have been lowering their entry limits.

The volatility indices, the so-called nervous barometers of the stock market, also show how far investors were surprised by the fall below 15,300 points. The higher they are traded, the greater price fluctuations expect professional investors in the coming days and weeks.

The VDax of the national stock barometer has risen again to 24 per cent, while the VStoxx of the Euro Stoxx 50 has risen to more than 25 per cent. “We now have a completely new market state,” Altmann says. “Since May there is not so much fear in the market.”

Statistics also indicate this new market condition: for the first time since early November, there were two consecutive days of losses on Friday and yesterday Monday after a daily low of at least 0.9 per cent. Last Thursday, the Dax ended up trading one percent in the red at 15,630 meters.

With Monday’s significant loss, the days of the uncorrected rally since early November should have ended. However, in purely formal terms, this does not yet apply to the upward trend known as vaccine concentration.

Because, based on last week’s record high, the leading German index so far has only lost five percent: from the high of 15,811 points to the low correction, of 15,048 points.

That’s not much. By January of this year, the Frankfurt benchmark fell six percent after a record and then returned to record-breaking.

But there is a big difference: the six percent decline occurred during a strong seasonal phase earlier this year, in which investors have to invest fresh money. But there are currently summer vacations. And it has its own rules: professionals are on vacation. For this reason alone, there are always high fluctuations, but rarely does a change in trend occur.

The good news is that a bear market is unlikely. This would require a 20% drop, which corresponded to prices below 12,650 meters.

So far, this initiated consolidation seems like a regular summer fix for the year. Strictly speaking, the Dax must slide from its maximum at least ten percent in order to qualify as a correction. This would be the case with 14,229 meters.

For HSBC Germany technical analysts, “risks currently outweigh opportunities.” After all, the market faces great seasonal challenges in view of the weakness of the months of August and September. For HSBC’s Jörg Scherer, there is initially a price target in the range of 14,800 points for the Dax. There is also the May low, with 14,816 points.

Private investors on the Stuttgart Stock Exchange showed an interesting reaction to falling prices on Monday. They firmly believe that prices will rise again. With a value of ten more, Euwax sentiment has risen to the highest level in the last twelve months.

Stuttgart stock market sentiment is calculated on the basis of actual transactions with leverage products at Dax. A positive value indicates an excess of call products on sales derivatives.

Two points of such a high positive value can be derived: if the Dax rises again to a maximum record, These private investors are likely to perform well. The previous months of May and June had already made price-raising calls several times and, after record highs, made a profit from the sales of those calls.

The second point: if the courses start to slide, this group is likely to be pressured not to let the losses slip. And their sales should exacerbate the downward trend.

In addition, some professionals suffered losses yesterday when selling call options, but only to a small extent. The nominal purchase ratio of the Frankfurt Eurex derivatives exchange is 1.4 and therefore slightly below the average of the last twelve months, 2.0. Therefore, professionals have a slight excess of call options in their portfolio.

Bitcoin fell below $ 30,000

For the first time in about a month, the cyber currency Bitcoin fell below the psychologically important mark of $ 30,000. Cyber ​​currency fell three percent Tuesday to $ 29,803. Ethereum lost a similar amount to $ 1767. “There could now be a longer phase of consolidation before the next rally takes place,” predicts market analyst Milan Cutkovic of brokerage firm Axi. “Meanwhile, investors must accept that further regulation of this market is inevitable.”

Look at the individual values

Aviation values: A mix of different messages drove the prices of Fraport, Deutsche Lufthansa and Airbus. Qatar is planning a larger order for cargo planes, from Airbus or Boeing. In addition, the British low-cost airline Easyjet wants to increase its flight offer for the summer, given the relaxed travel restrictions and the growing number of passengers. This ensures a plus for Airbus of 1.1 per cent, Lufthansa increases by two per cent and Fraport by 1.4 per cent.

Pro Sieben Sat 1: With a price increase of 2.7 percent at first, the newspaper was a favorite on the German stock market. The TV network raised year-over-year targets thanks to a strong business recovery in the second quarter. At first glance, however, new forecasts are quite scarce, a stockbroker said. Therefore, the concentration could be stopped quickly. Meanwhile, the plus has shrunk to 0.8 percent.

Vonovia: The real estate group can convince more and more shareholders of its competitor Deutsche Wohnen of its acquisition offer worth about 18 billion euros. Vonovia’s share initially rose 0.9 percent, while the document is quoted unchanged. Currently, 31 percent of Deutsche Wohnen shares have been transferred to the group. At the end of June, the rate was still 18.4%.

The first deadline to accept the takeover bid ends July 21 at midnight. Vonovia must get more than 50 percent of the shares. Typically, most of the shares are offered at the end of the period. Vonovia offers shareholders of its Berlin competitor 52 euros per share.

Here you go to the page with the Dax course, here you can find the current tops and flops in the Dax.

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