Editors note: The next report is based on the continuous mood of the interviewed voters who CVoter made telephone interviews once a week since August. Research not ordered Firstpost.
According to data released by interviewer CVoter, the Congress has a clear lead in the upcoming parliamentary elections in Rajasthan on December 7, while Sachin Pilot enjoyed a favorable rating in comparison with current Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje from the BJP. The predetermined role of the Congress in voice participation in relation to the BJP-47.9 to 39.7 percent, easily overcomes the margin of error, which reduces the probability of a verdict against the candidates for the 200-seat assembly, according to a analysis by CVoter for ABP Nevs i Republic TV.
As the wealth of the BJP experienced a late wave between August and November 2018, the projected gap between the Congress and the BJP's shares was reduced from 14 percent in August to eight percent. Taking into account the fact that the distribution of tickets has been completed and that micro management has been established at the last minute, the voting participation rates can not be significantly different from this moment, CVoter says. According to the interviewers, it is unlikely that the split BJP will be reduced by 8% in the projection vote.
Congress conducts comfortably in the projected share of votes in all five areas of Rajasthan according to CVoter data. The Congress dominates BJP comfortably in Dhundhar and Harouti, and has less than five percent leading in the projected vote only in Marwad and Mevar. This points to a uniform attitude towards the state at the state level, without any pockets of influence of the BJP on the polls, according to the poll survey.
The CVotera poll predicted that the Congress will have 145 seats, and the BJP will only get 55 seats in 2018 parliamentary elections. In 2013, the Congress won only 21 seats, and the BJP won an incredible 163 seats.
Advantage of leadership by Congress:
Congress Sachin Pilot received 38.7 percent of respondents' votes and appeared as the most popular candidate for the post of Chief Minister. Today's chief minister Vasundhara Raje from the BJP is a second with 22.7 percent of respondents saying he will be the best candidate, and is closely followed by Congressman Ashok Gehlot, who confirmed 20.5 percent of the respondents.
When the respondents explicitly asked to choose between Pilot and Rajee, Pilot became the most desirable candidate for the majority of voters: 50.6 percent of respondents chose Pilot, and only 31.9 percent chose Raje.
CVoter concluded that Rajasthan Congress looks good in managing its affairs by introducing a unified face, that the top and senior minister of the BJP and the state government are equally mismatched, that the BJP is not hunting in any of Rajasthan's regions, that the difference in the projected share of votes between the BJP and the Congress is too wide to be bridged by a late wave, and that the distribution of tickets and micro-management has not much affected projections.
The CNS poll gave 43.5 percent of the votes to the BJP and 40.3 percent of the vote. The CSDS poll projected 45% of votes and the BJP with 41% of votes. The CFOR poll gave Congress 50% of votes and the BJP 43% of the vote.
The CNX poll predicts the BJP will win 75 seats and the Congress will have 115 seats. The CSDS Survey provides 110 seats for Congress and 84 seats for the BJP. The CFORE poll estimates 130 seats for Congress and 65 seats for the BJP.