In the decade since the Arab Spring, the melting pot of revolts has been where their legacy has been removed.
Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, where it all started in mid-December 2010, have continued to be a central element of the narrative of what happened when autocracies collapsed in front of quiet streets. And for the region’s power corridors, the three North African states have since been the center of an even greater conflict of influence.
Alongside him are the so-called Arab nationalist police states, led by the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and a resurgent Egypt, which regrouped after the bloody coup of 2013 and regained the protection of Abu Dhabi and Riyadh. On the other hand, there have been Qatar, Turkey and the remains of the Muslim Brotherhood, brutally expelled by Egypt’s leader Abdul Fattah al-Sisi, and protected by Doha and Ankara.
The destiny of the brotherhood has formed a line of fault on which both axes have entered. Ennahda, a party based on the brotherhood, has dominated Tunisian affairs for much of the past ten years. And earlier this year a government was formed in Libya, with the agreement of Turkey, a staunch enemy of the United Arab Emirates, which claims to be vigilant and vigilant.
However, after fighting costly wars of representation in Libya and spending generously on defending Egypt, it seems that Abu Dhabi is also involved in the fate of Tunisia.
The overthrow of the Tunisian government on Sunday night appears to have been the result of a convergence of events; the painfully slow collapse toward democratic norms, a collapsed economy, and a global slowdown that offered little encouragement to a corner about to be turned around. In fact, the reaction to a coup – which impacted much of the region – was decidedly muted on the national front. Although the coup policy seemed domestic, the stance of regional actors, including the UAE, is still unclear for now.
Tunisia had been strongly supported by Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, whom UAE leaders have deeply resented for their forays into Arab world politics, some of whom believe Libya has produced poor returns as a political investment and they fear the consolidation of political Islam. .
Kais Saied, Tunisia’s new strongman, has vowed to take over the ruling Ennahda party. And after doing a short job for the country’s prime minister, who went quietly after his dismissal, he seems to face few obstacles – for now – to consolidating his new power.
On the streets of Tunis, the government’s overthrow policy is very local; a tired people, many of whom have lost faith in the pace of change and have lost the confidence that the raw and stumbling Tunisian democratic experiment can bring. If national events have, in fact, been the sole driver of this anti-democratic movement, the heavyweights in the region will be watching closely, several without any inconvenience.
However, he believed in some European capitals on Tuesday that some of his regional counterparts were unhappy with developments.