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The growth rate of this year is expected to fall from 2.5 to 2.2%



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[앵커]

The Bank of Korea reduced this year's economic growth forecast of 2.2% to 2.5%.

The adjustments were greater than expected, partly reflected in the impact of Japan's conflict on exports and slow investments.

According to the reporter of Baek Jong Kyu, he is reporting.

[기자]

The downward revision of this year's economic growth rate has been somewhat foreseeable.

However, the adjustment was higher than expected.

The Bank of Korea (BOK) raised its growth forecast this year to 2.2%, 0.3 percentage points.

This is the lowest since 2009, just after the global financial crisis.

[정규일 / 한국은행 부총재보 : 미·중 무역 분쟁에 따른 글로벌 교역과 성장세 둔화, 반도체 경기 회복 지연 등 대외 여건 변화를 반영한 결과입니다.]

The potential growth rate, which is the maximum that can be achieved theoretically, was also reduced to 2.5-2.6%.

The claim that the economy will continue to grow beyond the "potential growth rate" has also disappeared from the verdict.

The most important reason is also the slowness of the export.

Exports to China have dropped sharply due to the US-China trade dispute and the prices of semiconductors continue to decline.

In particular, conflicts with Japan have recently spread and export prospects have blurred.

In addition to private consumption, there are no signs of improvement of investment in facilities and construction.

This year's growth forecast is partly reflected in the adverse effects of Japanese export regulation and the positive effects of the additional budget invoice.

[조영무 / LG경제연구원 연구위원 : (일본과의) 무역 갈등이 정치적 요인으로 인해서 더 심화하거나 장기화할 가능성이 커진 점을 고려하면 한국은행이 이번에 제시한 경제성장률 전망치 역시도 달성하지 못하거나 더더욱 낮아질 가능성도 있습니다.]

The Bank of Korea reduced its forecast for the next year's economic growth rate of 2.6% to 2.5% if the US and China trade disputes intensified and the export regulation of the Japan will become even bigger.

YTN Baek, Jong-Gyu[jongkyu87@ytn.co.kr].

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