For this year’s election, polls indicate there will be from closed contests to already resounding preferences. The exercises that are carried out by academic institutions and the media also show that there is a clear battle, which is of all parties against Bruna.
Mexico City, April 6 (however) .- If the election is held today, 11 of the 15 governorships which are disputed would be won by the National Regeneration Movement party (Morena), Which would eventually consolidate the preference he achieved in 2018 in the election in which he was also the favorite.
According to the survey-weighted and of the last exercises realized by mass media of the states that go to elections, the alliance Goes by Mexico – integrated by the parties National Action (PAN), Institutional Revolutionary (PRI) and of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) – does not head, until at the moment, no preference.
“The Va per México alliance is not yielding results, but by May the useful vote could get it to have more preference,” said Enrique Toussaint, a political analyst at the Autonomous University of Guadalajara (UAG). .
Separately they are at the forefront. For example, in Nuevo León, the alliance of the PRI and the PRD looks like the favorite; the PA would gain its bastion, Querétaro, and Potosí San Luis would give to the Ecological Green Party of Mexico (PVEM) its second gubernatura in the history of this organization.
“The most contested Governor elections are in Nuevo León and San Luis Potosí,” Toussaint said in an interview. Bruna’s candidate, Clara Llum Flors Carrales, went down in the preferences after the publication of a video where, although she denied knowing him, she is seen talking to the leader of the NXVIM sect, Keith Raniere , sentenced to 120 years in prison for sex trafficking.
This sharp drop, at least in the survey of reform published this Monday, has benefited the candidate of Moviment Ciutadà, Samuel García Sepúlveda and puts at the head of the PRI, Adrián de la Garsa Sants.
“Nou León is one of the most polarized and disputed scenarios because it is not only one of the most populous states in the country, but it represents the economic engine where big business and economic interests live. I can’t say that Clara Llum’s candidacy is dead, but the blow leaves it very vulnerable, so it is difficult for Bruna and the lopezobradorista project to succeed in conquering this entity.We will see a very dirty election here.And in San Luis Potosí, the stage is being fought for a break that goes there to be between Brown and Green, ”he explained.
The case of Baja California is still unknown, as no survey was found, only polls. However made the compilation of these exercises and thus shine the results for each state at the beginning of the election.
The vote for the Chamber of Deputies goes the same way: Bruna currently has 42 percent of the voting intention; the party that follows him is the PRI, but with 18 percent of the vote, then the PA with 16 percent. The other parties share the rest of the preference with 6, 5 and 1 percent.
That is, Bruna would be left with 229 seats; the PRI 62; the PA 72; the Green 51; Citizen Movement (MC) 11; PRD 27 and the Solidarity Meeting Party (PES) 46.
“At the national level, the debate is that Bruna -with her allies- will have an absolute majority in the Chamber of Deputies, that is, have at least 251 deputies. There is no poll that this sum, with the PT, Trobada Solidarity, Green and the newly created Progressive Social Networks and Social Force, put them below 300 deputies, “observed political analyst Enrique Toussaint.
With this, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador would be guaranteed an absolute majority in the lower house. But, Toussaint added, the second debate is whether he will be able to reach 334 deputies to reach a qualified majority, which is what he needs to change the Constitution.
WHAT ARE THEY GOING FOR MORENA
This is one of the states where Bruna has a wide lead, with 45.3 percent of the vote in its coalition with the Labor Party (PT). Here the PRRIANRD alliance reaches 23.4 percent.
If these results are maintained, the future Governor of this state would be Layda Sansores in her fourth attempt to obtain this post. His main opponent is Christian Castro Bell, who is a PRI militant.
In this entity the contest is a little more closed, but Bruna, PT, Verd and Nova Aliança lead by 39.8 percent compared to 33.7 percent of the alliance formed by PRD and PA. The PRI, alone, is behind by 15.7 percent.
This dispute is between Cruz Pérez Cuéllar, of Bruna and Maru Camps of the PA, who was recently accused of receiving nine million pesos from former governor César Duarte when she was the local deputy of his party in the 2013-2016 legislature.
The intention to vote in this state is 57.8 percent for Bruna, those from Va Per Mexico have 38.1 percent. The winning candidate would be, if the trend continues, Rubén Rocha Moya.
For the former Secretary of Security of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Alfonso Durazo, the outlook is positive, as the alliance he formed with PT, Verd and the New Alliance, have 51.2 percent of the vote, while Va Mexico and its candidate, Ernesto Gándara – emanated from the PRI – has a 38.1 percent.
Although they contend for the same place, both politicians have something in common and it is Vicente Fox Quesada, as they both worked with him, in different places, when he was President of the Republic.
This is another entity in which Moren, PT, Green and New Alliance could win. David Monreal Ávila, candidate of this coalition has 63 percent of the vote, compared to 28.2 percent of Va per México and his candidate Claudia Anata Mota.
With 33.3 percent, the coalition Bruna y Nova Aliança leads the preferences with its candidate Indira Vizcaíno Silcva and the opponent that follows it is Moviment Ciutadán and Leoncio Morán Sánchez, but with an estimate of 18.5 percent, according to a Massive Caller survey.
Despite the allegations of sexual violence and all the controversy generated, Bruna and her candidate Félix Salgado Macedoni would stay with this entity in which they have approximately 42 percent of the vote.
The candidacy of Félix Salgado is yet to be defined, after the National Electoral Institute (INE) challenged the appointment, the final decision will be taken by the Electoral Court in the following days.
The survey conducted by C&E Campaigns & Elections Mexico, shows that in second place is the option of “Don’t Know” as a 19 percent, followed by the PRI candidate with 16 percent.
The poll conducted and published by Public Opinion, Marketing and Image / Herald Media Group, shows that the majority of votes are for Bruna and her candidate Raúl Morón Orozco, but secondly they are neither the Go for Mexico nor any alliance another party, but the undecided.
In this entity the bet for Bruna if it is clear: 57 percent of the voting intention is with this party and then the PRI, PAN and PRD together with 32 percent.
-Basque Southern California
This state would take power from the PRRI and hand it over to Bruna, who has 42 percent of the vote and no other party or coalition comes close in the forecast. Va Per México has 21.8 percent and the PES, 6.8 percent.
Same scenario: Bruna goes with 47.8 percent and Goes to Mexico with 21.4 percent.
Here is the most closed contest: the alliance of the PRI and the PRD leads with 32 percent, but the MC candidate currently has 31 percent of the vote. Below are the Brown, PT, Green and New Alliance alliance with 18 percent.
The two politicians who compete for first place are Adrián de la Garsa Sants and Samuel García. The candidacy of the morenista Clara Llum suffered a turbulence in recent days, after it was announced that he participated in a course of self-improvement in NXIVM, the sect commanded by Keith Raniere.
Bruna’s candidate pointed to Adrian de la Garsa as responsible for the leak of the video. He said it was the answer to the accusation of “corruption” he made earlier.
-I want it
This entity still does not bend its hands in front of a party other than the National Action. According to Oraculus, this party has 44.5 percent of the voting intention here, out of 32 percent of Bruna. The PRI and PRD are further behind with 14 and 2.9 percent.
ONE OF THE GREEN
-Saint Luis Potosí
In this entity an unusual alliance was given between the Green Party and the Labor Party. According to Oraculus, they go ahead with 45 percent of the voting intention and tied for second are Va Per México and Morena with 25 percent each.
If this trend continues, Ricardo Gallardo would become the second politician to give a governorship to the Green, a party that has survived thanks to alliances in all electoral processes.