Thursday , July 7 2022

HCP expects economic growth to decline


Economic growth in Morocco is expected to be 2.7% in 2019 instead of 3% in 2018, announced the high commissioner for planning (HCP) Ahmed Lahlimi Alami in Casablanca on Tuesday.

This slowdown is attributable to the decrease of 2.1% of the added value of the primary sector, which would contribute negatively to the growth of gross domestic product -0.3 points in 2019 instead of a positive contribution of 0.3 points a year ago, explained in a press conference devoted to the presentation of the national economic situation in 2019 and its prospects for 2020 .

In addition, he said that it is expected that non-agricultural activities will increase by 3.2%, slightly higher than 2.8% in 2018, which indicates that this is mainly due to an increase in secondary activities. 3.5% instead of 3% in 2018. Regarding tertiary sector activities, they should increase by 3% instead of 2.7% in 2018.

At the level of the secondary sector, transforming industries would continue to recover, with a growth rate of almost 3% in 2019, said Ahmed Lahlimi, noting that the construction and public sector sector should see an improvement with a near growth 1% instead of 0.1% in 2018, thanks to the continuation of infrastructure projects.

Regarding the mining sector, its added value would continue to consolidate and show a pace of consolidation growth He added that 3.9% in 2019 after 4.7% in 2018 and a sharp rise of 16.5% in 2017, pointed out that market services would have to grow by 3% in 2019, an improvement on the 2019 with an average of 2.4% between 2013 and 2018, while services provided by public administrations would add 3.4% more value added after 2.5% a year earlier. In addition, the High Commissioner for the Plan announced a decrease in inflation, expressed by the general level of prices, which went from 1.1% in 2018 to 0.8% in 2019.

Slight decrease in national savings

About the budget deficitAhmed Lahlimi revealed that it is expected to increase to 4.5% of GDP in 2019, compared to 3.7% in 2018, and that, given the privatization revenues, this deficit s & it should reduce. to 3.6% of GDP.

About the documentnational savings, estimates that it would experience a slight decrease, from 27.6% of GDP in 2018 to almost 27.3% in 2019, and observed that this saving would be kept below the gross investment that would be reduced by 33.5% of the GDP in 2018 to 32.6% in 2019.

Regarding the balance of foreign trade in goods and services, it would show a rigid downturn in the downturn GDP from 18.6% of GDP in 2018 to 18.7% in the current year, while the balance of payments should generate a current account deficit of 5.3% of GDP, 5.9%% of GDP registered in 2018.

Finally, the global public debt ratio would increase to 81.3% of GDP in 2019 instead of 73.4% during the period 2010-2017 and 60.2% during the period 2005-2009. He expects the treasury global debt ratio to rise to 65.3% of GDP instead of 64.9% in 2018, he said.

With MAP

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