Minister of Finance Abderrahmane Raouia presented at the National People's Congress (NPC), the Draft Law on Financing (PLF) 2019, on Sunday at a plenum chaired by Mouad Boucharb, in the presence of government members.
The invoice provides an increase of 2.9% for the financial year 2019, compared with an increase of 3.2% excluding hydrocarbons. It was developed on the basis of a reference price of $ 50 (USD) / barrels of Algerian oil "Sahara Blend" and based on a market price of $ 60.
Regarding the Algerian dinar exchange rate, it should be around RSD 118 / USD, the average annual price for the period 2019-2021 with inflation of 4.5% in 2019 and 3.9% in 2020 and 3, 5% in 2021.
In anticipation of a decrease in the volume of oil exports by 1% to 33.2 billion dollars in 2019, non-hydrocarbon growth in quantitative conditions is expected due to construction and public works 4.7%, industry (5%), agriculture (3.7%) and market and non-market services (1.8%).
In the medium term, economic growth will increase to 3.4% in 2020 and 3.2% in 2021, with an average non-hydrocarbon growth of 3.1% in 2020-21. Years, according to PLF forecasts. The bill also envisages an increase in the volume of hydrocarbon exports of 4.2% in 2020 with revenues estimated at $ 34.5 billion and 2% in 2021 from $ 35.2 billion in revenue.
The foreign exchange reserves of 2019 are less than $ 62 billion
Reflecting the measures the government has taken to regulate imports, the law predicts, Raouia says, a drop in commodity imports to $ 44 billion in 2019, $ 42.9 billion in 2020, and $ 41.8 billion in 2021.
As a result, the trade balance deficit will gradually fall from $ 10.4 billion in 2019 to $ 8.2 billion in 2020 and $ 6.4 billion in 2021.
For the period 2019-2021. The PLF predicts a continuous decline in the balance of payments, which should increase from $ 17.2 billion in 2019 to $ 14.2 billion in 2020 and then $ 14 billion in 2021.
This decline will lead to a reduction in foreign exchange reserves to $ 62 billion in 2019, then $ 47.8 billion in 2020, then $ 33.8 billion in 2021.
The PLF from 2019 anticipates a 10.9% drop in investment and an increase in operating costs by 8.1%, leading to a fall in the treasury deficit -10.4% relative to the gross domestic product (GDP) (against -11% in 2018 year).
Of the total estimated expenditures of 8,557.2 billion Yen, the account envisages an increase in operational costs of 4,954.5 billion Yen in 2019 (+ 8.1%) compared to capital expenditures estimated at 3,602.7 billion Yen (-10.9%) .
Budget revenue projections for 2019 amounted to 6,507.9 billion Yen, including 2,714.5 billion YES tax-related taxes included in the budget.
It is expected that the oil tax in 2019 will reach 3,201.4 billion Yen.
However, the forecasted deficit slightly in relation to gross domestic product (GDP) will fall to -5.7% in 2020 and -5% in 2021, according to the forecasts of the Ministry of Finance.
Treasury deficit financing between 2019 and 2021 "will be some kind of pressure, despite the use of unconventional funding and withdrawal from the Revenue Management Fund during this period."
However, the need for unconventional financing will "fall", which will amount to -1,874.4 billion Yen in 2019, -746.5 billion Yen in 2020, and -796.5 billion Yuan in 2021, says the minister.
Legislative provisions in the draft law aim to improve state revenues, coordinate and simplify procedures, combat corruption and tax evasion, and encourage and promote productive investment and improve bank interest rates for the benefit of citizens.
The text is an extension of the country's efforts to mitigate the negative impact of a recession on national economies in a context marked by tensions on the country's internal and external balance sheets due to the fall in oil prices.
For this purpose, the law devotes a search for control of public spending in order to reduce the repercussions of these tensions in the state treasury.
At the end of the Minister's presentation, the Rapporteur of the Committee on Finance and the Budget of the Assembly read out the preliminary report of the commission on the draft law before the start of the debate by the deputies.
On Monday, the minister will respond to the concerns of lawmakers about a law that will be voted on Thursday by the lower house of parliament.