The ANZ Bank Group said that it maintained its estimation for the growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) of the Philippines in 2019 to 6%, the lower rank of the government target range of 6-7%, with public investments and the Expenditure likely to be recovered until the third quarter of 2019.
"We are still waiting for GDP growth of 6% in 2019. Although private consumption is likely to remain firm, public spending and investments will not be recovered until the third quarter," ANZ said in its report Asia Economic Outlook .
"The impact of the 2019 delayed budget was evident due to the contraction of public spending and its impact on private investment. The latter was also likely affected by the type gains made last year In fact, we expect the impact of the delayed budget and the ban on public construction related to the elections to be extended to 2 years. "
"Capital imports and government disbursements in April remained disappointing, they suggest a sustained weakness of investment and public spending," said ANZ.
ANZ pointed out that only private consumption accelerated in the first quarter, with a GDP growth of only 5.6%, largely due to the delay in the passage of the General Loans Act of 2019 (GAA).
The forecast of ANZ is lower than the 6.2% GDP growth published in 2018.
However, ANZ said that the slowdown in growth could "help stop some of the underlying imbalances of the" Philippine economy "in the area of imports, credit and inflation.
ANZ said that goods imports grew at a slower pace of 2.8% in April from 10.3% in December, based on the average of three months, which was a trade deficit Less than $ 3,100 million in the first quarter, compared with the 4.2 billion in the last quarter. of 2018.
ANZ also said the contraction of exports slowed to 0.5% in April of 1.5% in December.
"If these trends continue, the current account balance as part of the GDP will improve in 2019," said ANZ.
ANZ sees economic growth of 6.2% next year.
Last week, the secretary of socioeconomic planning, Ernesto M. Pernia, said that it is still possible to achieve a GDP growth of 6.5% this year due to electoral spending, consumption and the diminution of inflation.
"I would say that 6.5% is possible," Pernia said, although growth in the second quarter "is not as strong as the third quarter."
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) has revised this year's inflation forecast to 2.7% compared to the previous 2.9%. – Reicelene Joy N. Ignacio