Does the 2009 local election syndrome not wait for President Macky Sall for these local elections on December 1, 2019?
In 2007, President Abdoulaye Wade won the presidential election in the first round with a percentage of 55.90%. And in the 2009 local elections, he lost many large cities. Therefore, the decline to his regime to hell could be predicted.
Today, the question is whether President Macky Sall does not run the risk of losing major cities for the majority in the local elections of December 1, 2019? The head of State, in the last presidential elections, won with a comfortable score of 58.26% and an exceptional participation rate of 66.23%.
Behind this great success there are many difficulties for the locals. They can be measured in the results obtained by President Macky Sall in several important cities like Dakar, Pikine, Guédiawaye, Thies, Diourbel, Mbacke, Ziguinchor, Bignona, etc.
When you remove the personal quote from President Macky Sall that can be measured between 5% and 10%, the presidential majority has a percentage that can easily be exceeded by the sum of the percentages of the opposition parties in a second category of the cities.
The Benno Bokk Yaakar coalition (if it survives, of course, until December), will undoubtedly win on December 1. Earning the place is to win the largest number of municipalities. However, rural communities are largely more numerous and are traditionally in favor of the BBY.
However, the loss of large cities also expects to wait for the loss of the legislative elections of 2022 through the loss of the departments with the largest number of deputies.
This is really a risk of diminishing most of the ABY in parliament and this loss of large cities could lead to the worst situation for the loss of the parliamentary majority of President Macky Sall.
The situation also affects the cities where President Macky Sall won with a score of less than 55%. In fact, when the personal quote of President Macky Sall is withdrawn, ABY is below 50%, which the coalition puts at a united opposition.
These presidential elections have shown that middle classes and educated classes beyond BFEM have voted mostly for the opposition. Winning large cities at the local level in December 2019 will require that a large part of these voters return to occupy the position of the presidential majority.
Therefore, it will be important in the nomination statement, such as in the appointment of the prime minister and in the constitution of the new government that this parameter can be supported. It will not be surprising if he is aware that President of the Republic, Macky Sall, is a political end, one of the great politicians, that Senegal has known.
That is why the actions that President Macky Sall will take at the beginning of his last mandate will be decisive, especially during this week that we are beginning.
You have the possibility, for a careful reading of its brilliant results, to fill the gaps that seemed to establish the bases of a victory in big cities in the local elections of # 1; from December 2019 and turn it into a treadmill to win the legislative elections of 2022. And be able to govern through the peace implementation of the second phase of the PSE.
A bad reading or a misunderstanding of the social and civic demand of the middle class and the educated layers could make Senegal govern from January 2020 and lead to coexistence in 2022 announcing a very difficult end of the mandate.
This is the challenge that President Macky Sall will face through his inaugural address, his appointments and the actions he will have to take.
Moustapha sow journalist
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