Housing sales in June experienced the most severe monthly decline of 48.5% historically.
-The extension of the holidays is a factor that technically reduces sales. In June last year, 19 business days were held and 15 June to 15 days. This is the biggest explanatory factor in the hard fall.
– The second important factor in the sharp decline in home sales high interest rates. In June last year, the types of home loans were 13.02% as a weighted average of banks.
– This corresponds to a monthly interest of 1.08 percent, reasonable and, in the long run, much higher than the limit of the load of portable interests, even slightly above. Ideal rates of 1 percent and below.
–In June, the average interest rate on loans for housing increased to 22.23 percent. The average monthly arithmetic reaches 1.85%.
CONSTRUCTION HOUSES WITH HIGHER INTEREST
– This is a loan interest rate, which is double the interest rate of 1 percent and reasonable and portable per month. What kind of credit should I use credit at this interest rate, but what does it pay for years?
– Despite the high interest rates, those who bought housing with credit were nevertheless. In June, 7,319 housing units were acquired through loans. They represent 7,319 homes in June last year, compared to 85% of the year's value. A very dramatic fall.
HALF MILLION HOUSING SALES YEAR
– But it is still a good result. In addition, it gives us a more accurate picture of the six-month period exam instead of just June. Six month home sales were 505,796 and 21.7 percent less than the same period last year.
–Yes, home sales decreased by a fifth. However, even in difficult conditions, more than half a million homes were sold. Annually, one million can be exceeded. I think this sale is a good sale in Turkey. I affirmed that the worsening of June was the reduction of the number of working days.
PURCHASE BEAUTIFUL PURCHASE WITH HIGH CREDIT OF INTEREST
– Mortgage sales were down 58.9% in six months of the year. The number of homes purchased with credit fell from 202,000 to 82,000. 82% of the monthly interest rate that is close to 2 percent of the use of good value loans. To carry this loan for 7 years and 10 years and make payments, the borrower's income must be very good.
–Or house prices should be reduced to a very attractive level, so that the buyer can cover this interest load.
– If we look at housing prices, this is not the case. Although we can not sell houses, we can not see a parallel and consistent price decrease.
REAL REDUCTION OF 15% IN THE HOUSING PRICES
– Once again, yesterday, CBRT announced housing price indexes in May. Housing prices 0.49 percent in May through Turkey, increased by 1:57 a.m. last year. Of course, this increase is nominal. Housing prices decreased the price of 14.44 percent last year.
Therefore, this regression is not enough to activate the sensors. Prices are still high or the financing costs are high. Interest rates are high. Even up to one floor. This is the biggest handicap in the face of housing sales.
–To mobilize buyers, homeowner prices must be able to absorb an interest handicap. The real decline of 15% in a year did not provide it. As the interest rate has increased approximately double The cost of the loan to be charged is well above 15%.
– In this case, the housing sector expects interest rates to fall, which is expected in the coming months. However, perhaps I do not have enough to reduce home loans up to 12% and below. because For that reason, inflation should be permanently reduced to digits of one digit and the financial resources should be abundant.
– Let's say that these conditions have been met and the interest rates have been appropriate, Does the sale of housing return to its previous vitality? Very difficult. This is difficult from the price level. It would be if it were reduced to an attractive price level. But the stocks are also fused.
Income, wealth, time needed for companies
– Housing prices must be aligned with the macroeconomic size of the country. Therefore, housing prices should decrease in real terms, but some data should be improved. Per capita income, per capita wealth and employment should also increase so that housing demand will increase again.
–Achieving these developments requires a complete period of preparation and execution, and therefore years.
WHEN DO YOU ACT?
– The sector was already alive for a long time.. Demand was overwhelmed. The vitality was kept in excess, even the extra time was played. Almost everyone who could have financial access to housing purchased housing and those who had more money bought the latter and the third.
– To create a new demand, it should increase the population and marriages, reduce debts, increase savings and exceed a certain amount of time. All these developments may require years of time.
–There should be average demand and this demand reached a certain size so that the housing sector could return to work.