This will not save the situation, say the experts of the bank, even the Russian Ministry of Finance, which in case of another ruble can refuse to buy the currency. However, everything is not so scary: at this moment the dollar is worth about 67.7 rubles, in other words, only 3.5% lower than in the "unpleasant" forecast.
If the current level of oil prices and the exchange rate exchange rate are maintained, the balance (difference between receipts and costs) of the current account in November-December will be about $ 12.5 billion.
Late ignored positive oil because of external obligations and suspicions of sanctions. In December, at current oil prices, the dollar could exceed 70 rubles, writes Delovoy Peterburg, referring to a review of experts from Raiffeisenbank. "But in 2016, even beyond the context of sanctions, the exchange rate is decreasing," he said at the KEF-2018 conference in Minsk.
"As a result, the ruble is likely to weaken by the end of the year even in the absence of interventions (which is more than 70 rubles / $ with current oils)," the report said.
In order to mitigate the currency liquidity deficit, the Federal Treasury will launch a money exchange operation on the stock exchange in Moscow before the end of the first decade of December this year. Chief of Treasury, Roman Artjuhin, said that such operations will begin on December 8, and their volume will be 50 billion rubles. daily
Despite the fact that such a significant balance in the current account did not strengthen the ruble, it can be imagined that capital exports were not caused by the increase in foreign assets by banks, but with "other factors," the report said. In addition, economists emphasize that there is an increased demand for currencies that exceeds supply in the domestic market. Instead, the Central Bank provides funds to the Minister of Finance from its own foreign exchange reserves.
At the same time, the US Congress is currently discussing two legislative projects, which envisage sanctions on the new state debt of the Russian Federation and state banks.
It should be noted that now the forecast of S & P's forecast suggests that the growth of money investments in the Russian Federation 2020-2021 will be at least not less than 3.2%, while such dynamics can be achieved in the background of the weakening of monetary policy, the rate of bank loans and state investment in infrastructure development.