Monday , September 26 2022

Colombia, the fifth most-growing economy in Latin America for 2019


In a tax reform that premiered on the first day of the year, the success will depend on it to stimulate entrepreneurship; with a wage increase of 6 percent for those who earn the minimum wage, which will allow them to have higher consumption capacity homes, and an inflation that gives signs that they will remain within the goal range of the Bank of the Republic (2 and 4%)The letters are placed in the country to produce a growth of production above it 3 percent, which will locate this economy in 2019 in the fifth place among the most growing in Latin America.

In fact, this week the World Bank He made a revision of its forecasts and, although it forecasts a global slowdown in comparison with the previous year, the projection of Colombia left her still, at 3.3 percent, arguing that even the migration of Venezuelans could continue to generate added value in the economy. "It could result in an increase in growth as a consequence of a greater supply of work handicap and higher consumption and investment," says the report.

The good wishes of the World Bank so that national production is above that of Brazil (2.2%), Argentina (-7.7%) i Mexico (2%), And just below that of Bolivia (4.3%), Paraguay (3.9%), Peru (3.8%) i Chile (3.5%) They have several sources, without discounting that there are also threats.

(Read also: UN expresses willingness to expand cooperation with Venezuela)

For Camilo Pérez, manager of economic research at the Bank of Bogotá, though there is no doubt that the growth of the country in this year will be greater than in the previous year, It is also key not to be so optimistic, given the tailings that may come from the global environment.

Among the pillars highlighted by Pérez, to maintain an economy with a better expansion than 2018, there is the fact that the picture for household consumption is favorable.

"Interest rates will continue to decline, which shakes hands with a wage increase of a minimum of 6 percent, which will increase the purchasing power of families and, in turn, allow households to be update the consumption of durable goods, which was slowed down in the previous three years. "

On the side of employment, although the expert of the Bank of Bogotá does not anticipate changes in the labor market, because companies have to pay a higher minimum wage, the director of the center of thought Anif Sergio Clavijo, he sees some risk.

While Perez estimates that the greatest business expense for a better labor payment will be offset by the need for a higher production to meet the demand for items that will grow, Clavijo estimates that there will be a rise in urban unemployment.

"The improvement in national unemployment, where we predicted a slight correction towards rates of 9.4 percent (annual average) versus the 9.6 percent that would have made an average in 2018, will be obscured by the persistence of # 39; urban unemployment close to 11% (with high incidence of Venezuelan migrants) ".

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