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Crude monthly forecast – April 2019


The price of US crude oil in the global market has experienced constant price action at the time of this year. Although there may have been price performances linked to the range and then the small corrective corrections, the overall price trend for each month of this year has been positive. This is clearly apparent from a look at the weekly chart that shows solid progress in the price action of crude oil in the world sales market. In addition, the factors that supported crude oil bulls at their positive price concentration this month were higher than in the last two months. However, the price of crude oil continued to see the influence of the weekly data of American stocks. American petroleum in March experienced a 7% increase in value when comparing the price open and closed monthly.

The couple continued to climb new monthly highs throughout the month, as crude oil bulls seem to have found a reliable way of strength from a fundamental perspective. The month of the start of the positive note supported by the optimism surrounding the negotiations and commercial holders of Sino-US that arrived at the market indicating that the production of crude oil and the exports of Venezuela fell a 60 % due to the impact of US imposed sanctions. In addition, the news that OPEC plans to maintain its production and its application until June 2019 and Russia has finally begun to take steps to ensure that its production meets the agreed levels of the # 39 OPEC and the summit. However, an increase in US annual oil reserves limited earnings.

Supply disruptions in the Middle East

Since the beginning of the year, the OPEC application of the production and supply reduction agreement has steadily contributed to improving the supply and demand ratio in the global market and this has served a long-term support factor based on the oil bulls. The first fortnight of March also found the support of reports that suggested that Saudi Arabia had planned to reduce April's production to less than 7 million pounds and keep production far below the 10-pound target millions of pounds sterling and that the United States saw the scene where Venezuela had zero crude oil for the first time in history. Meanwhile, due to the sudden electrical voltage, the activity of production and supply of Venezuelan crude oil stopped abruptly. Changing the dynamics of demand and global supply influenced a new wave of strong action at the bottom.

The second half of the month affected the trade range of petroleum bulls near monthly highs, supported by the OPEC application. But the price soon reached the highest of 2019 and increased the control of $ 60 both in the local market and futures, as the interruption of the supply to Venezuela before the sudden disconnection lasted more than normal. While profit-making activity led to a decrease in the 2019 high-rise prices for a short period, the change in the supply dynamics influenced by US sanctions on crude oil exports from Venezuela and Venezuela and the implementation of the OPEC supply reduction helped to recover the price above $ 60. A sudden and awaited review of US crude oil inventory data in both the API and AIA reserves also added support for crude oil bulls. But the decline in the profitability of the bonds in the global market, which led to an increase in risk-averse trade and the concerns of the economic downturn, affected the price of crude oil.

The fundamental support goes towards the bulls, but it is probable that the gain gains

A slowdown in global economic activity would mean a reduction in demand for crude oil that would again change the supply-side demand ratio. But this time the change would favor the bones of crude oil. And the stock of American oil rose again during the last week of March according to weekly inventory data. This caused that the price of crude oil returned to occupy of $ 58. But a rebound in the world bond market caused investors to worry about the global economic downturn and so the risk aversion slowed down. This helped recover the price of crude oil for a price of $ 60 and closed the month with a positive note. Looking ahead, it is likely that the price action will remain positive in the world market, but profit is likely to be limited. As geopolitical problems continue unresolved to date, the headlines show signs that neither the Sino-American trade war nor the Brexit are about to see positive results, any level of investment sensation, and concern about risk and the Concerns about the economic slowdown will remain on the market providing raw oil has a fundamental support. Even if the news suggests that Russia could have complied with the objective of reducing the OPEC offer and Saudi Arabia diminished its production, these have been expected from now on Time for investors and they probably would have had a rally price in progress. Although the confirmation of these events will lead to an increase in the price of crude oil, bulls will see a strong resistance to the state of $ 62 and the price action will be limited with positive bias throughout the month unless There is a totally unexpected or gross weekly update from the U.S. Oil inventories represent consecutive updates with stock data.

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